2. Which of the following time-series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast a time series that exhibits a linear trend with no seasonal or cyclical patterns? (Points : 1) a. Dummy variable regression b. Linear trend regression c. Holt Winter's double exponential smoothing d. Multiplicative Winter's method e. Both A and D

6) The following results are an autoregression for the above series where the independent variables are the lagged value of the series and time. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.88 R Square 0.77 Adjusted R Square 0.76 Standard Error 18 51 Observations 73 ANOVA Significance df F Regression 2 78680 39340 115 7.90887E-23 Residual 70 23985 343 Total 72 102664 Standard Upper Coefficients Error P-value Lower 95% 95%% Intercept 69.45 12.3 5.7 0.0 45.0 93.9 Lagged term 0.32 0.1 2.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 Time 1.03 02 4.8 0.0 0.6 1.5 Based on these regression results, what is your forecast for the 71" period? (10) 1= 49:6+. 082+70x1, 05 x71= 166.03 b) Based on these regression results, what is your forecast for the 72" period? (10) y = 69 +6 +1 03( 72) y= 143, 6114 A compound A was found to decompose to compound B by a first order process. What fraction of A was decomposed after 7.25 min., if the rate constant for the reaction was 0.324 min"?? How long will it take for the concentration of A to drop by 0.5. A ZD . 324/ DAY - B 15. (4 pts) What is the molecularity of the following reactions. Predict the rate Laws of these elementary processes. a) Br2 > 2Br b) NO + Cl2 > NOCIz8. Acetone is a useful solvent and is used in a variety of industrial processes. It decomposes via a first order process to form methane and ketene. At 600 C the rate constant is 8.7 x 10-3 s-1. a. What is the half life of the reaction? Inz 1/2 In2 k .7 810'3 $ 79. 7 5 b. How much time is required for 34% of a sample to decompose? 34 % decomposed = 66% left [AJe = O. 66CA]. CAJ. = 1.00 InCAY In 0.66 CA]. [ AJ. -8.7 x 10 . t In 0. 66 - - 8. 7x10 3.e =)_In(o. 66 -1.00) CAZ! =-8.7 10. OR 1. 60 t = 49. 6 5