Question
2008 January 438 2009 January 444 2010 January 450 February 420 February 425 February 438 March 414 March 423 March 434 April 318 April 331
2008 | January | 438 | 2009 | January | 444 | 2010 | January | 450 |
February | 420 | February | 425 | February | 438 | |||
March | 414 | March | 423 | March | 434 | |||
April | 318 | April | 331 | April | 338 | |||
May | 306 | May | 318 | May | 331 | |||
June | 240 | June | 245 | June | 254 | |||
July | 240 | July | 255 | July | 265 | |||
August | 216 | August | 223 | August | 231 | |||
September | 198 | September | 210 | September | 224 | |||
October | 225 | October | 233 | October | 243 | |||
November | 270 | November | 278 | November | 289 | |||
December | 315 | December | 322 | December | 335 |
1) Develop a regression model; find b0 and b1. Show a table with the calculations, find SST,SSR,SSE , r^2 and find MAD
2)Develop forcast using 6 months MA and find MAD , then develop a forcast using 6 month MA in which revenue for first month is 2x and revenue for each other 5 is 1x and also find MAD
Develop a forecast using exponential smoothing with SC = 0.6, forecast using exponential smoothing with trend with SC = 0.6 and SC 0.4 assuming Jan 2008 is 445,000 and Find MAD
3)Find CMA, seasonal ration , seasonal index and deseasonalized revenue and final forecast start CMA in july, find trendline for deseasonalized revenue and final forecast and find MAD
4)Compare the above forecasting which one is better and why, use best to forecast 2011 year jan to dec
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