Question
36. Consider all courtroom trials with a single defendant who is charged with a felony. Suppose that you are given the following probabilities for this
36. Consider all courtroom trials with a single defendant who is charged with a felony. Suppose
that you are given the following probabilities for
this situation.
Seventy-five percent of the defendants are, in
fact, guilty. Given that the defendant is guilty,
there is a 70 percent chance the jury will convict the person. Given that the defendant is not
guilty, there is a 40 percent chance the jury will
convict the person.
For simplicity, assume that the only options
available to the jury are: to convict or to release
the defendant.
(a) What proportion of the defendants will be
convicted by the jury?
(b) Given that a defendant is convicted, what
is the probability the person is, in fact,
guilty?
(c) What is the probability that the jury will
make a correct decision?
(d) Given that the jury makes an incorrect decision, what is the probability that the decision is to release a guilty person?
37. Recall that a confidence interval is too small if
the number being estimated is larger than every
number in the confidence interval. Similarly, a
confidence interval is too large if the number
being estimated is smaller than every number
in the confidence interval.
Each of four researchers selects a random sample from the same population. Each researcher
calculates a confidence interval for the median
of the population. The intervals are below.
[24, 41], [30, 39], [20, 33], and [35, 45].
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