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6. For the extensive game below, Nature Nuclear Iran Probability P w/probab US President Non-nuclea Iran w/probability 1-P Attack Us President Iron Fight Fight

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6. For the extensive game below, Nature Nuclear Iran Probability P w/probab US President Non-nuclea Iran w/probability 1-P Attack Us President Iron Fight Fight (0,1) (4,6) Not Attock (3,3) Tren Attack Not Attack Not Fight Fight Not Fight -10, -5 4-10 The U.S. president has a prior belief that Iran has nuclear weapons with a probability 0.15. Given the belief should the U.S. President should attack? The president receives new information that the Iranian troops are massing on the border with Turkey. The probability that Iran does this, given they have nuclear weapons, is 0.90. The probability that Iran does this, given they do not have nuclear weapons, is 0.10. Should the U.S President attack?

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Analyzing US Presidents Decision in the Extensive Game Part 1 Prior Belief p 015 Expected Payoffs Attack We need to calculate the expected payoff cons... blur-text-image

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