6. Sensitivity and scenario analysis Different techniques for analyzing project risk require different input variables and assumptions. Suppose you are using the sensitivity analysis technique to evaluate project risk. You would change in the model to evaluate the effect of the input factors on the expected value. Zeva is a risk analyst. She is conducting a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the riskiness of a new project that her company is considering investing in. Her risk analysis report includes the sensitivity curve shown on the graph. NPV (Millions of dollars) Base Case NPV Base Case Price -30 -24 -18 -12 -6 0 6 12 18 24 30 - ILCELLULADOLAPID Base Case NPV Base Case Price -30 -24 -18 -12 -6 0 6 12 18 24 30 CHANGES IN SELLING PRICE (Percent) This curve implies that the project is very sensitive to changes in the price of the product. The project's NPV is likely to become negative if the price for which the product can be sold decreases by Along with the sensitivity analysis, Zeva is including a scenario analysis for the project in her report, giving the probability of the project generating a negative NPV. Her report includes the following information about the scenario analysis: Data Collected Probability Data for z 0.03 0.06 Z 0.09 Probability (Pi) Outcome NPV; 0.4 0.3336 0.3228 0.2546 0.3121 0.2451 Pessimistic 0.50 0.6 -$2.31 million $4.53 million $12.11 million 0.2643 0.2033 0.35 0.8 0.1949 Most likely Optimistic 0.1867 0.15 1.0 0.1515 0.1446 0.1379 Complete the missing information in Zeva's report: The expected net present value of the project is Standard deviation of the net present value (the NPV of the project is likely to vary by) million