9.13 International Fischer Forecasts. Assuming International Fisher-one version of purchasing power parity-applies to the coming year, forecast the following future spot exchange rates using the government bond rates for the respective country currencies: a. Japanese yen to U.S. dollar in one year b. Japanese yen to Australian dollar in one year c. Australian dollar to U.S. dollar in one year 9.14 Implied Real Interest Rates. If the nominal interest rate is the government bond rate, and the current change in consumer prices is used as expected inflation, calculate the implied "real" rates of interest by currency. a. Australian dollar "real" rate b. Japanese yen "real" rate c. U.S. dollar "real" rate 9.15 Forward Rates. Using the spot rates and threemonth interest rates in the table, calculate the 90-day fopward rates for: 1:57 .1I 5G+4 9.15 Forward Rates. Using the spot rates and threemonth interest rates in the table, calculate the 90-day forward rates for: a. Japanese yen to U.S. dollar exchange rate b. Japanese yen to Australian dollar exchange rate c. Australian dollar to U.S. dollar exchange rate 9.16 Real Economic Activity and Misery. Calculate the country's Misery Index (unemployment + inflation) and then use it like an interest differential to forecast the future spot exchange rate, one year into the future. a. Japanese yen to U.S. dollar exchange rate in one year b. Japanese yen to Australian dollar exchange rate in one year c. Australian dollar to U.S. dollar exchange rate in one year Forecasting the Pan-Pacific Pyramid: Use the following data in answering problems 9.119.16. 1:58 .1I 5G 3 Forecasting the Pan-Pacific Pyramid: Use the following data in answering problems 9.119.16. \begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline & \multicolumn{4}{|c|}{ Gross Domestic Product } \\ \hline Country & \begin{tabular}{l} Latest \\ Qtr \end{tabular} & Qtr* & \begin{tabular}{l} Forecast \\ 2007e \end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l} Forecast \\ 2008e \end{tabular} \\ \hline Australia & 4.3% & 3.8% & 4.1% & 3.5% \\ \hline Japan & 1.6% & 1.2% & 2.0% & 1.9% \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{\begin{tabular}{l} United \\ States \end{tabular}} & 1.9% & 3.8% & 2.0% & 2.2% \\ \hline & \multicolumn{3}{|c|}{ Consumer Prices } & Interest Rat \\ \hline Country & \begin{tabular}{l} Year \\ Ago \end{tabular} & Latest & \begin{tabular}{l} Forecast \\ 2007e \end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l} 3-month \\ Latest \end{tabular} \\ \hline Australia & 4.0% & 2.1% & 2.4% & 6.90% \\ \hline Japan & 0.9% & 0.2% & 0.0% & 0.73% \\ \hline \multirow{2}{*}{\begin{tabular}{l} United \\ States \end{tabular}} & 2.1% & 2.8% & 2.8% & 4.72% \\ \hline & \begin{tabular}{l} Trade \\ Balance \end{tabular} & \multicolumn{2}{|c|}{ Current Account } & Current Unit \\ \hline \multirow[t]{2}{*}{ Country } & \begin{tabular}{l} Last 12 \\ mos \end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l} Last \\ 12 \end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l} Forecast \\ 07 ( % of \end{tabular} & Oct 17 th \\ \hline & & 286 & & \\ \hline \end{tabular} 1:58 .1I 5G 3 Forecasting the Pan-Pacific Pyramid: Use the following data in answering problems 9.119.16. \begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|} \hline & & IndustrialProduction & \begin{tabular}{l} Unemployment \\ Rate \end{tabular} \\ \hline \begin{tabular}{l} cast \\ te \end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l} Forecast \\ 2008e \end{tabular} & Recent Qtr & Latest \\ \hline , & 3.5% & 4.6% & 4.2% \\ \hline , & 1.9% & 4.3% & 3.8% \\ \hline \multirow[t]{2}{*}{, } & 2.2% & 1.9% & 4.7% \\ \hline & \multicolumn{2}{|c|}{ Interest Rates } & \\ \hline \begin{tabular}{l} past \\ 'e \end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l} 3-month \\ Latest \end{tabular} & 1-yr Govt Latest & \\ \hline , & 6.90% & 6.23% & \\ \hline . & 0.73% & 1.65% & \\ \hline , & 4.72% & 4.54% & \\ \hline it & \multicolumn{2}{|c|}{ Current Units (per US\$) } & \\ \hline \multirow[t]{2}{*}{ cast } & Oct 17 th & Year Ago & \\ \hline & & 286 & \\ \hline \end{tabular} Source: Data abstracted from The Economist, October 20 , 2007 , print edition. Unless otherwise noted, percentages are percentage changes over one year. Rec Qtr = recent quarter. Values for 2007 e are estimates or forecasts. 287 9.17 The Rising Sun and Europe. The Japanese yen-euro cross rate is one of the more significant currency values for global trade and commerce. The following graph shows this cross rate from when the euro was launched in January 1999 through January of 2015. Estimate the change in 1:58 .11 5G 3 \begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|} \hline & & IndustrialProduction & \begin{tabular}{l} Unemployment \\ Rate \end{tabular} \\ \hline cast & \begin{tabular}{l} Forecast \\ 20020 \end{tabular} & Recent Otr & Latest \\ \hline & 3.5% & 4.6% & 4.2% \\ \hline a & 1.9% & 4.3% & 3.0% \\ \hline \multirow[t]{2}{*}{ A } & 2.2% & 1.985 & 4.7% \\ \hline & \multicolumn{2}{|c|}{ Interest Rates } & \\ \hline \begin{tabular}{l} east \\ 'e \end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{l} 3-month \\ Latest \end{tabular} & 1-yr Gout Latest & \\ \hline , & 6.90% & 6.23% & \\ \hline i & 0.73% & 1.65% & \\ \hline i & 4.72% & 454% & \\ \hline it & \multicolumn{2}{|c|}{ Current Units (per USS) } & \\ \hline \begin{tabular}{l} tast \\ 6 of \end{tabular} & Oot 17th & Year Ago & \\ \hline% & 1.12 & 1,33 & \\ \hline 4 & 117 & 119 & \\ \hline & 1.00 & 1,00 & \\ \hline \end{tabular} 286