A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as shown below:

Day	Blueberry Muffins	Cinnamon Buns	Cupcakes
1	42	17	58
2	41	16	23
3	42	18	28
4	41	18	61
5	49	20	35
6	40	21	29
7	43	25	28
8	49	22	61
9	39	26	27
10	42	28	27
11	47	29	23
12	41	29	64
13	47	30	26
14	43	32	23
15	45	34	21

a.	Predict orders for the following day for each of the products using an appropriate naive method.

Blueberry Muffin: The Basic Naive forcast is 45

Cinnamon Buns: The trend-adjusted naive forecast is 36

Cupcakes: The seasonal-adjusted naive forecast is ?

Everything is correct except for I can't figure out the forecast for the cupcake.

b.	What should the use of sales data instead of demand imply?

The use of sales data instead of demand implies that sales adequately reflect demand.

We are assuming that no stock-outs occurred because demand equals sales if there are no shortages.