Question
A company is considering a new 3-year project with a 13% required return. If things go as planned, it will be profitable. But the company
A company is considering a new 3-year project with a 13% required return.
If things go as planned, it will be profitable. But the company has reasons to believe that due to possible competition in the market there is a 30% chance that the annual profits will turn out to be way too low! In this case, the company is probably going to need to end this project sooner, at the end of the 2nd year, and sell all used production equipment then.
Here's more information for each scenario:
Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Net Present Value | ||
If things go well | -$1,000 | $400 | $400 | $1,200 | NPV = $ | |
If things go bad (30% chance) | Keep the project running, as planned | -$1,000 | $50 | $50 | $850 | NPV = $ |
End the project at the end of Year 2 | -$1,000 | $50 | $900 | --- | NPV = $ |
For all calculations in this problem: Round your answer to whole dollar. Don't put the "$" sign. If the value is negative, put the MINUS sign.
First, fill out the Net Present Values for all three possible outcomes in the last column in the table above!
In case things don't go well, and the company keeps the project running as planned, the Expected Net Present Value of the project is $.
In case things don't go well, and the company ends this project at the end of Year 2, the Expected Net Present Value of the project is $.
Is it worth ending the project sooner? This can be calculated! The value (in dollars) of this option to end the project sooner is $.
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