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A company is trying to decide whether to market a new product. If marketed, the unit margin of the product would be $18,000. The
A company is trying to decide whether to market a new product. If marketed, the unit margin of the product would be $18,000. The company classifies the possible market results as great, fair and awful and estimates the probabilities of these outcomes to be 0.45, 0.35 and 0.2 respectively, and the sales volumes of these outcomes would be 600, 300 and 90 respectively. If the company decides to develop the product further to ready it for market, it will incur a fixed cost of $4 million. This development may succeed technologically with a probability of 80%. In the case of successful technological development, the company will incur marketing costs equal to $2 million. 1. Use a decision tree to devise the appropriate strategy (plan of action) for the company and determine the expected monetary value (EMV). State the strategy in words and write down the EMV.
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