Question
A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large research project. The firm's management initially felt they had a 50-50 chance of getting the project.
A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large research project. The firm's management initially felt they had a 50-50 chance of getting the project. However, the agency to which the bid was submitted subsequently requested additional information on the bid. Past experience indicates that for 70% of the successful bids and 39% of the unsuccessful bids the agency requested additional information.
Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a request for additional information (to 2 decimals).
What is the prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to the request for additional information)?
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