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a) Create the Enterprise Risk Exposure distribution by calculating all combinations of the risk scenarios, assuming that all possible risk scenarios are shown below. Use
a) Create the Enterprise Risk Exposure distribution by calculating all combinations of the risk scenarios, assuming that all possible risk scenarios are shown below. Use the dollar value of change in company value as the metric. Assume there are no risk correlations. Round each impact result up to the hundreds of thousands (e.g., 4.2 million). Sort the sims by decreasing order of impact. The (unsorted) layout for this is shown on the tab "ERE". b) What is the likelihood of the pain point: A company value loss of $10 million or more c) What is the likelihood of achieving or exceeding Plan? d) What is the likelihood of being within plus or minus $10 million of plan? e) What is the probabilistic expectation (not the strategic plan expectation) of the company value? (In other words, based on probability, what should the company expect their company value to be?)
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