A data analyst for the Urban Institute, an independent Washington D C based research firm, is interested in predicting legal immigration into the U S She estimates two different models, with results from the models provided below The level of significance is 05 NOTE US immigration policy allows foreign nationals to enter the country legally under different regulations These include lottery, quota based, political war refugee, marriage to a US citizen, and critical skill groups Why would the analyst code Entry Status as a dummy variable Reference Model 1 what is the expected sign on the coefficient for US Unemployment rate and WHY You must justify your answer Reference Model 2 what is the expected sign on the coefficient for Country of Origin Average Wage and WHY You must justify your answer Propose an additional independent variable that could be included in the model What is the expected relationship between your proposed independent variable and legal immigration Why would you include the proposed independent variable Two consultants, Dr Black and Dr Stone review the data analyst models Dr Stone concludes that Model 1 is the better model for predicting legal immigration Dr Black concludes that Model 2 is best for predicting legal immigration The data analyst concludes that both models are good models for predicting legal immigration Who is correct Dr Stone, Dr Black or the data analyst and WHY This requires some thought and is not as easy as it seems NO not a trick question its a thinking question Model 1 Model 2 R squared 59 R squared 58 Significant F 023 Significant F 015 Independent Variables Independent Variables US Unemployment rate p value 011 Country of Origin unemployment rate p value 017 US GDP growth rate p value 045 US GDP Growth rate p value 042 US Average Wage p value 0003 Country of Origin Average Wage p value 0002 Entry Status 1 quota lottery 0 other p value 021 Entry Status 0 quota lottery 1 other p value 021 N 10,000 N 10,000

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A data analyst for the Urban Institute, an independent Washington D.C. based research firm, is interested in predicting legal immigration into the U.S. She estimates

A data analyst for the Urban Institute, an independent Washington D.C. based research firm, is interested in predicting legal immigration into the U.S. She estimates two different models, with results from the models provided below. The level of significance is .05.

NOTE: US immigration policy allows foreign nationals to enter the country legally under different regulations. These include lottery, quota based, political/war refugee, marriage to a US citizen, and critical skill groups.

Why would the analyst code Entry Status as a dummy variable?
Reference Model #1 what is the expected sign on the coefficient for US Unemployment rate and WHY? You must justify your answer.
Reference Model #2 what is the expected sign on the coefficient for Country of Origin Average Wage and WHY? You must justify your answer.
Propose an additional independent variable that could be included in the model. What is the expected relationship between your proposed independent variable and legal immigration? Why would you include the proposed independent variable?
Two consultants, Dr. Black and Dr. Stone review the data analyst models. Dr. Stone concludes that Model #1 is the better model for predicting legal immigration. Dr. Black concludes that Model #2 is best for predicting legal immigration. The data analyst concludes that both models are good models for predicting legal immigration. Who is correct; Dr. Stone, Dr. Black or the data analyst and WHY? This requires some thought and is not as easy as it seems.NO not a trick question its a thinking question.

Model #1		Model #2
R squared	.59	R- squared	.58
Significant F	.023	Significant F	.015
Independent Variables		Independent Variables
US Unemployment rate	p-value = .011	Country of Origin unemployment rate	p-value = .017
US GDP growth rate	p-value = .045	US GDP Growth rate	p-value = .042
US Average Wage	p-value = .0003	Country of Origin Average Wage	p-value = .0002
Entry Status: 1 = quota/lottery 0= other	p-value = .021	Entry Status: 0= quota/lottery 1= other	p-value = .021

N = 10,000		N= 10,000