Question
A data analyst for the Urban Institute, an independent Washington D.C. based research firm, is interested in predicting legal immigration into the U.S. She estimates
A data analyst for the Urban Institute, an independent Washington D.C. based research firm, is interested in predicting legal immigration into the U.S. She estimates two different models, with results from the models provided below. The level of significance is .05.
NOTE: US immigration policy allows foreign nationals to enter the country legally under different regulations. These include lottery, quota based, political/war refugee, marriage to a US citizen, and critical skill groups.
- Why would the analyst code Entry Status as a dummy variable?
- Reference Model #1 what is the expected sign on the coefficient for US Unemployment rate and WHY? You must justify your answer.
- Reference Model #2 what is the expected sign on the coefficient for Country of Origin Average Wage and WHY? You must justify your answer.
- Propose an additional independent variable that could be included in the model. What is the expected relationship between your proposed independent variable and legal immigration? Why would you include the proposed independent variable?
- Two consultants, Dr. Black and Dr. Stone review the data analyst models. Dr. Stone concludes that Model #1 is the better model for predicting legal immigration. Dr. Black concludes that Model #2 is best for predicting legal immigration. The data analyst concludes that both models are good models for predicting legal immigration. Who is correct; Dr. Stone, Dr. Black or the data analyst and WHY? This requires some thought and is not as easy as it seems.NO not a trick question its a thinking question.
Model #1 |
| Model #2 | ||
R squared | .59 |
| R- squared | .58 |
Significant F | .023 |
| Significant F | .015 |
Independent Variables |
| Independent Variables | ||
US Unemployment rate | p-value = .011 |
| Country of Origin unemployment rate | p-value = .017 |
US GDP growth rate | p-value = .045 |
| US GDP Growth rate | p-value = .042 |
US Average Wage | p-value = .0003 |
| Country of Origin Average Wage | p-value = .0002 |
Entry Status: 1 = quota/lottery 0= other | p-value = .021 |
| Entry Status: 0= quota/lottery 1= other | p-value = .021 |
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N = 10,000 |
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| N= 10,000 |
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