A major source of revenue in Texas is a state sales tax on certain types of goods and services. Data are com- piled, and the state comptroller uses them to project future revenues for the state budget. One particular category of goods is classified as Retail Trade. Four

years of quarterly data (in $1,000,000s) for one particular area of southeast Texas follow:

Quarter	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4
1	218	225	234	250
2	247	254	265	283
3	243	255	264	289
4	292	299	327	356

(a) Compute a seasonal index for each quarter based on a CMA.

(b) Deseasonalize the data, and develop a trend line on the deseasonalized data.

(c) Use the trend line to forecast the sales for each quarter of year 5.

(d) Use the seasonal indices to adjust the forecasts found in part (c) to obtain the final forecasts.