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A manager is trying to decide whether to buy one machine or two. If only one machine is purchased and demand proves to be excessive,
A manager is trying to decide whether to buy one machine or two. If only one machine is purchased and demand proves to be excessive, the second machine can be purchased later. Some sales would be lost, however, because the lead time for delivery of this type of machine is six months. In addition, the cost per machine will be lower if both machines are purchased at the same time. The probability of low demand is estimated to be 0.30 and that of high demand to be 0.70. The after-tax NPV of the benefits from purchasing two machines together is $70,000 if demand is low and $180,000 if demand is high. If one machine is purchased and demand is low, the NPV is $120,000. If demand is high, the manager has three options: (1) doing nothing, which has an NPV of $100,000; (2) subcontracting, with an NPV of $140,000; and (3) buying the second machine, with an NPV of $130,000. a. Choose the correct decision tree for this problem. Note that each payoff is given in thousands of dollars. OA OB 120 Do nothing Low demand 0.30 100 Buy 2 machines Buy 1 machine 120 Do nothing Subcontract 100 -140 E Low demand 0.70 High demand 0.30 Low demand 0.70 High demand Subcontract High demand 0.70 Buy 2 70 machines 140 130 130 Buy 1 machine Buy 2 machines Buy 2 machines 70 180 Low demand 0.30 0.30 OC. Low demand 70 Do nothing 100 Buy 1 machine 1 Buy machine High demand Subcontract 140 L 140 Buy 2 120 machines Low demand Low demand 120 Do nothing High demand Subcontract 0.70 Buy 2 Low demand 0.30 -70 machines High demand 180 0.70 - 130 - 130 Buy 2 machines Buy 2 machines High demand 180 b. What is the best decision and what is its expected payoff? Best decision is to buy machine(s) and its expected payoff is $. (Enter your responses as integers.)
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