Question
A small research lab has developed a pill to vaccinate people against a new strain of COVID recently discovered on a Polynesian island. As an
A small research lab has developed a pill to vaccinate people against a new strain of COVID recently discovered on a Polynesian island. As an analyst at Pfizer, you are assigned to determine the value of acquiring the pill patent from the research lab. Currently this strain of COVID remains isolated to the island.
If the virus were to spread to a densely populated country, you forecast that pill sales will earn $600 million of net cash flows next year. However, if the virus remains isolated to the island, you forecast that the net cash flows will be zero. You determine that the likelihood of this strain of COVID spreading to a densely populated country is 20%. Hence, your overall expected net cash flows from operations are $120 million next year (i.e, 20% of $600MM + 80% of $0).
These cash flows are quite risky in that you forecast either $600 million or $0 to occur. You also believe that whether or not the virus spreads to a populated country depends on how effectively governments can monitor travel to and from the island, and not on any economic or financial conditions.
Use the CAPM to determine the fair value of acquiring the pill patent. That is, what is the fair value today of this expected $120 million cash flow? You are told that your firm has access to a riskless rate of 2.1% per year and views the market risk premium to be 7.9% per year.
The fair value of acquiring the pill patent is _______ million dollars. (Round to the nearest million)
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