Question
A sporting goods retailer observed a 6-month seasonality in their sales, i.e., sales in one quarter were correlated with sales from 2 quarters earlier. Over
A sporting goods retailer observed a 6-month seasonality in their sales, i.e., sales in one quarter were correlated with sales from 2 quarters earlier. Over the past year, they recorded the following quarterly sales: 1.64, 1.12, 2.96, and 2.3 ($ million). The 6-month seasonality led them to fit an autoregressive AR(2) model: t = b0 + b2*yt-2, which had estimated parameters b0 = 0.5, and b2 = 1.39. (a) Use the above model and previous sales to forecast their sales for the next quarter: $ million (2 decimals) (b) The actual sales for this quarter were $4.24 million. What is the APE, absolute percentage error, of the above forecast (after rounding to 2 decimals)? % (2 decimals).
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