Question
ABC contractor is trying to make a decision whether to bid for a certain contract or not. They estimate that only preparing the bid will
ABC contractor is trying to make a decision whether to bid for a certain contract or not. They estimate that only preparing the bid will cost CAD10,000. If their company bid then they estimate that there is a 50% chance that their bid will be put on the "short-list", otherwise their bid will be rejected. Once "short-listed" the firm will have to supply further detailed information (meaning additional costs estimated at CAD5,000). After this stage their bid will either be accepted or rejected. The firm calculate that the labor and material costs related to the contract are CAD127,000. They are considering three possible bid prices, namely CAD155,000, CAD170,000 and CAD190,000. They assess that the probability of these bids being accepted (if they have been short-listed) is 0.90, 0.75 and 0.35 respectively.
Using decision tree analysis: What should the company do? and what is the expected monetary value of your suggested course of action? (Make sure to show all calculations and drawings) Please don't use chatgpt script.
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