Amy is a supply chain manager at a tech company. Twenty three years ago, the company used Bass diffusion model to predict the adoption of a new product. Amy collected data for the actual demand for the product during the past $23$ years, and drew a graph to compare the actual demand with the forecast obtained by the Bass diffusion model $($diffusion estimate$).$ The picture below shows the comparison. In the picture, the blue line shows the forecast $($Diffusion Estimate$)$ and the orange line shows the actual demand $($Actual Per Year$).$

Bass Model.png

Amy believes that the forecast has not been sufficiently accurate and tries to find the reason. Which of the following is the reason for the inaccuracy of the forecast obtained by the Bass diffusion model?

Group of answer choices

The size of the market $($N$)$ was underestimated. A low value of N$,$ makes the model overestimate the early adopters.

The probability of adoption by innovators $($p$)$ was overestimated. A high value of p$,$ makes the model overestimate the early adopters.

The probability of adoption by imitators $($q$)$ was underestimated. A low value of q$,$ makes the model overestimate the early adopters.

None of the above