Analysts estimate that the value of Union Metals (UM) real (operating) assets follows a log-normal distribution. In particular, analysts estimate that the operating value (V ) of UM assets can be modeled as: Vt = 100, 000 ! eWt . where at each point in time t,Wt is a standardWiener process following a normal distribution with mean zero and variance t. UM holds no cash (or marketable securities) and has a single zero coupon debt obligation outstanding. The bond will mature in one year (t=1) and has a face value of 15, 259. Estimate the probability of UM defaulting on its debt at t=1 (you have been provided a table with the cumulative area under the standard normal distribution at the back of this exam).