Apply a regression-based forecasting model using the attendance from

1997-2002 (i.e., not "rolling regression") to generate predictions for each month of 2003 that accounts for both:

1. the general downward trend in attendance and
2. seasonality.

Compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the forecast errors for 2003. (please round to the closest whole number)

\begin{tabular}{cr} Year Fossil Fuel Production \\ \hline \hline 1949 & 28.748176 \\ 1950 & 32.562667 \\ 1951 & 35.792151 \\ 1952 & 34.976732 \\ 1953 & 35.349336 \\ 1954 & 33.76433 \\ 1955 & 37.36368 \\ 1956 & 39.771452 \\ 1957 & 40.133484 \\ 1958 & 37.216322 \\ 1959 & 39.045216 \\ 1960 & 39.869117 \\ 1961 & 40.307136 \\ 1962 & 41.731885 \\ 1963 & 44.037181 \\ 1964 & 45.788951 \\ 1965 & 47.234902 \\ 1966 & 50.035367 \\ 1967 & 52.597132 \\ 1968 & 54.306187 \\ 1969 & 56.285569 \\ 1970 & 59.186071 \\ 1971 & 58.04156 \\ 1972 & 58.937904 \\ 1973 & 58.241491 \\ 1974 & 56.330758 \\ 1975 & 54.733273 \\ 1976 & 54.722896 \\ 1977 & 55.100782 \\ 1978 & 55.074118 \\ 1979 & 58.005609 \\ 1980 & 59.007873 \\ 1981 & 58.529329 \\ 1982 & 57.457822 \end{tabular} 198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201557.45782254.41596158.84915657.53872456.57523157.16674557.87499757.48267958.55960257.87172757.65505755.82208258.04363857.54013558.38722558.85669159.31408357.61448157.36602458.54134856.83367356.03278455.94234855.04400255.93785456.43564957.58701456.67027458.20664260.54959362.30279964.20146169.65261170.220845 \begin{tabular}{lrr} Year & Month & Attendance: Phantom Of The Opera \\ \hline 1997 & 1 & 48241 \\ 1997 & 2 & 47442 \\ 1997 & 3 & 61929 \\ 1997 & 4 & 49939 \\ 1997 & 5 & 49103 \\ 1997 & 6 & 62617 \\ 1997 & 7 & 48731 \\ 1997 & 8 & 63147 \\ 1997 & 9 & 44623 \\ 1997 & 10 & 47854 \\ 1997 & 11 & 58117 \\ 1997 & 12 & 49582 \\ 1998 & 1 & 48411 \\ 1998 & 2 & 49184 \\ 1998 & 3 & 62259 \\ 1998 & 4 & 48761 \\ 1998 & 5 & 58877 \\ 1998 & 6 & 48727 \\ 1998 & 7 & 47831 \\ 1998 & 8 & 59759 \\ 1998 & 9 & 42394 \\ 1998 & 10 & 48289 \\ 1998 & 11 & 58828 \\ 1998 & 12 & 49151 \\ 1999 & 1 & 58816 \\ 1999 & 2 & 44063 \\ 1999 & 3 & 45694 \\ 1999 & 4 & 48395 \\ 1999 & 5 & 57039 \\ 1999 & 6 & 47076 \\ 1999 & 7 & 45297 \\ 1999 & 8 & 59088 \\ 1999 & 9 & 40147 \\ 1999 & 10 & 55407 \end{tabular} 19991999199920002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200120022002200220022002200220022002101112123456789101112123456789101112123456785540743413444635269045973488466159144835449245381944785373985025841547535174522344576455426016342162434905413245279332313601434536489283988542887557233998036962507194513446564 20022002200220022002200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032003891011121234567891011124656443494372353531352173369063226044107438683913155393462455699134464421065008541936