As an industrial engineer working for a manufacturing company, your task is to forecast the demand.a$.$ Using Winter's method, calculate the one$-$step and two$-$step demand forecasts for the upcoming two

$3-$month periods $($i$.$e$.,$ Jan$-$Mar $2024$ and Apr$-$Jun $2024).$ Show each step of your work.

b$.$ Suppose that the demand for Jan$-$Mar $2024$ turns out to be $1800$ units. Update the forecasting model

using the following smoothing parameters: $($level$)$ of $0\mathrm{.}3,($trend$)$ of $0\mathrm{.}2,$ and $($seasonality$)$ of $0\mathrm{.}1.$

Using the updated model, forecast the demand for Apr$-$Jun $2024.$

c$.$ Suppose that the demand for Apr$-$Jun $2024$ turns out to be $2200$ units. What is the MAPE value for

your one$-$period$-$ahead forecasts? That means you must use your Jan$-$Mar $2024$ forecast from part a

and Apr$-$Jun $2024$ forecast from part b$.$

d$.$ Suppose that the demand for Apr$-$Jun $2024$ turns out to be $2200$ units. What is the MAPE value for

your two$-$period$-$ahead forecasts? That means you can only use your Apr$-$Jun $2024$ forecast from part

a$.$

You have access to the historical data for the past $2$ years.

$3-$month Period Demand $($units$)$

Jan$-$Mar $20223200$

Apr$-$Jun $20223600$

Jul$-$Sep $20223600$

Oct$-$Dec $20224000$

Jan$-$Mar $20232600$

Apr$-$Jun $20232400$

Jul$-$Sep $20232400$

Oct$-$Dec $20232200$

a$.$ Using Winter$$s method, calculate the one$-$step and two$-$step demand forecasts for the upcoming two

$3-$month periods $($i$.$e$.,$ Jan$-$Mar $2024$ and Apr$-$Jun $2024).$ Show each step of your work.

b$.$ Suppose that the demand for Jan$-$Mar $2024$ turns out to be $1800$ units. Update the forecasting model

using the following smoothing parameters: $\backslash$alpha $($level$)$ of $0\mathrm{.}3,\backslash$beta $($trend$)$ of $0\mathrm{.}2,$ and $\backslash$gamma $($seasonality$)$ of $0\mathrm{.}1.$

Using the updated model, forecast the demand for Apr$-$Jun $2024.$

c$.$ Suppose that the demand for Apr$-$Jun $2024$ turns out to be $2200$ units. What is the MAPE value for

your one$-$period$-$ahead forecasts? That means you must use your Jan$-$Mar $2024$ forecast from part a

and Apr$-$Jun $2024$ forecast from part b$.$

d$.$ Suppose that the demand for Apr$-$Jun $2024$ turns out to be $2200$ units. What is the MAPE value for

your two$-$period$-$ahead forecasts? That means you can only use your Apr$-$Jun $2024$ forecast from part

a$.$