As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:

Year	1	2	3	4	5
Heart Transplants	46.0	50.0	55.0	56.0	58.0

The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be

42.0

surgeries.

Part 2

a) Using exponential smoothing with

of

0.60

and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal

place):

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6
Forecast	42.0	44.4044.40	47.7647.76	52.1052.10	54.4454.44	56.5856.58

Part 3

For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with

=

0.60

and the given forecast for year 1, MAD =

4.94.9

surgeries (round your response to one decimal

place).

Part 4

Using exponential smoothing with

of

0.90

and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal

place):

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6
Forecast	42.0	45.6045.60	49.5649.56	54.4654.46	55.8555.85	57.7857.78

Part 5

For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with

=

0.90

and the given forecast for year 1, MAD =

3.53.5

surgeries (round your response to one decimal

place).

Part 6

b) Forecasts for years 4 through 6 using a 3-year moving average are (round your responses to one decimal

place):

Year	4	5	6
Forecast	50.350.3	53.753.7	56.3333333356.33333333

Part 7

For forecasts made using a 3-year moving average, MAD =

5.05.0

surgeries (round your response to one decimal

place).

Part 8

c) Forecasts for years 1 through 6 using the trend-projection method are (round your responses to one decimal

place):

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6
Forecast	enter your response here	enter your response here	enter your response here	enter your response here	enter your response here	enter your response here