ASSIGNMENT 1: Classical and imprecise decision analysis

1. Read chapters 2-4 in Borking et al. (2011) and chapter 1 in the compendium by Malmns and Paulsson (2016).

2. Solve a real or fictitious decision problem with at least two alternatives using decision-analytical methods following the decision management process outlined in Borking et al. (2011, p. 49).

Each alternative should have at least two uncertain outcomes. At least one of the total number of outcomes, should itself have at least two uncertain outcomes. Furthermore, at least one parameter per outcome (probability or consequence value, or both) should be imprecise.

3. a report with a structure based on the decision management process in Borking et al. (2011), including a discussion of the assumptions, methods, and results (, A4, 25 mm margins, 10 points, 1.5 line space).

4. Write a reflection on your work in which you convey your reasoning and critical thinking skills. You should (1) identify and describe something that you find significant (e.g., a revelatory insight, a problem, a methodological issue, a pedagogical issue), and then (2) reason critically about possible implications and solutions. Also, you should (3) briefly describe what you have learned, and what further questions you might have or what you would like to learn more about (, A4, 25 mm margins, 10 points, 1.5 line space).