At the beginning of 2022 a new motorway is inaugurated in FCLAND, a country which is considered as a strategic cross-country. The motorway is 70 kms long. FC1FC15 is the missing link of a trans-country network. It should generate a diversion of traffic from the national roads and have a high daily traffic (mainly heavy vehicles). The existing road network needs repairing, and it takes more time to drive from one town to another. The preferred bidder for the tender offer was a European consortium who signed a DBOMT agreement with local authorities. The agreement provides for a short concession of 20 years (including 4 years of construction period). The SPV created for the project is FCTRANS Ltd. FC1FC15 is an open toll motorway, the toll will be paid in LCY (local currency, FC Unit) The total cost of this green project amounts to EUR 452.886 million. The stand-by line has not been drawn during construction since the project has not encountered any cost overruns or delays in completion. Sources and application of funds are as follows (simplified figures and assumptions)

Assumptions for the case EUR/LCY=100.LCY is supposed to be pegged to EUR. FCLAND has a record of moderate to low inflation rates. Its political system is relatively stable. There is not a strong diversification of the economy, but the GDP has shown an increasing trend. FCLAND has recently been upgraded to BBB-.

You will take a 365-day year assumption, but you will keep in mind that, because of adverse climate (snow and very low temperatures in winter), the motorway might be closed several days per year, even if since the beginning of 2020 winter season has not generated traffic problems on local roads. The country may also encounter some shortages of oil.

Can you perform a monte carlo simulation in Excel based on the oil prices and the shortage of oil

I found that revenue from year 2018 to 2037 are:

Base revenue

0

0

0

0

31 566 391,99

38 315 286,59

48 405 343,64

59 248 140,61

61 641 765,49

64 132 092,82

66 723 029,37

69 418 639,76

72 223 152,80

75 140 968,18

78 176 663,29

81 335 000,49

84 620 934,51

88 039 620,26

91 596 420,92

95 296 916,32