Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, enrolls close to 20,000 students. The school is a dominant force in the small city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent residents.

Always a football powerhouse, SWU is usually in the top 20 in college football rankings. Since the legendary Bo Pitterno was hired as its head coach in 2003 (in hopes of reaching the elusive number 1 ranking), attendance at the five Saturday home games each year increased. Prior to Pitterno's arrival, attendance generally averaged 25,000 to 29,000 per game. Season ticket sales bumped up by 10,000 just with the announcement of the new coach's arrival. Stephenville and SWU were ready to move to the big time!

The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not NCAA ranking. It was capacity. The existing SWU stadium, built in 1953, has seating for 54,000 fans. The following table indicates attendance at each game for the past 6 years.

One of Pitterno's demands upon joining SWU had been a stadium expansion, or possibly even a new stadium. With attendance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issue head-on. Pitterno had wanted dormitories solely for his athletes in the stadium as an additional feature of any expansion.

SWU's president, Dr. Joel Wisner, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing stadium would "max out."The expansion was, in his mind, a given. But Wisner needed to know how long he could wait. He also sought a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of $50 in 2010 and a 5% increase each year in future prices.

Discussion Questions

1. Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other techniques, and project attendance through 2011.

2. What revenues are to be expected in 2010 and 2011?

3. Discuss the school's options. 

Southwestern University Football Game Attendance, 2004-2009 2004 2005 2006 Game Attendees Opponent Attendees Opponent Attendees Opponent 1 34,200 Baylor 36,100 Oklahoma 35,900 TCU 2a 39,800 Texas 40,200 Nebraska 46,500 Texas Tech 3 38,200 LSU 39,100 UCLA 43,100 Alaska 48 26,900 Arkansas 25,300 Nevada 27,900 Arizona 5 35,100 USC 36,200 Ohio State 39,200 Rice 2007 2008 2009 Game Attendees Opponent Attendees Opponent Attendees Opponent 1 41,900 Arkansas 42,500 Indiana 46,900 LSU 2 46,100 Missouri 48,200 North Texas 50,100 Texas 3 43,900 Florida 44,200 Texas A&M 45,900 Prairie View A&M 4b 30,100 Miami 33,900 Southern 36,300 Montana S 40,500 Duke 47,800 Oklahoma 49,900 Arizona State