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Bakertime is considering developing a new technology for baking bread. If it proves successful, it expects the bread will have a much better taste than
Bakertime is considering developing a new technology for baking bread. If it proves successful, it expects the bread will have a much better taste than is possible with the current industry-wide production methods. The board considers that there is an 80% chance that the new technology will come to fruition after a 2-year development period. In this period there are research and development costs of 10m and 3m that are incurred at the beginning of the first and second years respectively. If successful, it is expected that Bakertime's bread sales will be 15% higher than they would otherwise have been in the first 3 years after the development phase, 10% higher in the following 3 years and 5% higher in the 3 years after that (reflecting that their competitors will increasingly likely copy the technology as time passes if it should be successful). If the technology proves unsuccessful there will be no change to sales. Ordinarily (ignoring the possible technology) annual sales are expected to be a constant 25m each year. Due to the nature of the typical sale contracts involved, these can be assumed to be receivable at the end of each year. Assuming the board's estimate of the technology's success is appropriate and that the business uses their standard risk discount rate of 10% per annum (a hurdle rate which they've used for several years when evaluating possible projects); b) Determine the payback period and the net present value of the technology enhancement project. [8 marks]
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