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Based on what we know about biosimilars industry, assuming Amgen were to enter the industry, will it enjoy a competitive advantage relative to 1) drug
Based on what we know about biosimilars industry, assuming Amgen were to enter the industry, will it enjoy a competitive advantage relative to 1) drug companies that are currently NOT major players in the biotech space? 2) major biotech companies? 3) companies whose original drugs (i.e., reference product) that Amgen will hope to imitate in the form of a biosimilar? In each of these three conditions, which are the resources and capabilities that Amgen has that may help it gain a competitive advantage?
BIOSIMILAR ATTRACTIVENESS - THREE SCENARIOS Exhibit 17. Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Lower competition Higher competition High competition Number of competing biosimilar products 2 5 8 Share of biosimilar volume per product * 50% 20% 12.5% Volume penetration achieved by biosimilars 40% 60% 70% Price level relative to pre-biosimilar price 70% 50% 40%Exhibit 13 Major Branded Biologics Due to Come Off-patent in US by 2019 (as of September 2009) (Amgen products in italics and bold) Forecast US sales Type of Year of Marketer at expiry molecule expiry Product Developer (if different) ($bn) See note b Therapeutic area Main indications EXP Genotropin Pfizer 0.8 Peptide Pediatrics Growth Hormone 2012 Enbrel Amgen Amgen/Wyeth 3.5 FF Anti-inflammatory Rheumatoid Arthritis 2013 Avonex Biogen Idec 1.4 RP CNS MS 2013 Rebif Biogen Idec 0.5 RP CNS MS Epogen/ 2013 Procrit Amgen Amgen/J&. 3.2 RF Nephrology Anaemic 2013 Neupogen Amgen 1.0 RP Cancer Neutropenia 2014 Humalog () Eli Lilly 1.2 RP Endocrinology Diabetes 2014 Novolog () Novo Nordisk 2.0 Endocrinology Diabetes 2014 Remicade Sch-P, J&J 1.9 mAbs Anti-inflammatory Rheumatoid Arthritis 2015 Lantus () Sanofi Aventis 3. RP Endocrinology Diabetes 2015 Levemir (c) Novo Nordisk 1.8 RP Endocrinology Diabetes 2015 Neulasta Amgen 3.4 Cancer Neutropenia 2015 Rituxan Genentech (Roche) 3.5 mAbs Cancer Cancers (NHL), arthritis 2016 Humira Abbott 3.5 mAbs Anti-inflammatory Rheumatoid Arthritis 2017 Tysabri Elan Pharma 1.1 nAbs CNS MS 2017 Victoza Novo Nordisk 0.7 RP Metabolic diseases Diabetes Post- 2017 Aranesp Amgen 1.5 RP Nephrology Anaemia 2019 Avastin Genentech (Roche) 5.5 mAbs Cancer Colorectal cancer 2019 Herceptin Genentech (Roche) 1.9 mAbs Cancer Breast cancer 019 Lucentis Genentech (Roche) Novartis (ex US) 1.4 mAbs Eyes Age-related vision loss 2019 Orencia BMS 1.2 FP Anti-inflammatory Rheumatoid Arthritis 2019 Erbitux IM Clone (Lilly, BMS) Merck (ex NA 1.0 nAbs Cancer Colorectal cancer Total 45.5 Source: Assembled by case writer based on public sources including SEC Reports and industry reports from Evaluate Pharma and Decision Resources. Notes: (a) Excludes vacciness and interferon (b) RP = recombinant protein, FP = fusion protein, mAbs = monoclonal antibody (c) Humalog, Novolog, Lantus and Levemir are all forms of insulin Humira and Remicade are competitors to Enbrel. Orencia provides an alternative to TNF-based drugs. It is reasonable to assume that European revenue is around 70% of US volumeStep by Step Solution
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