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Before making a nal decision on the production plan to adopt the bakerv's manager decides to contact Professor Leu ng in the Math Department to
Before making a nal decision on the production plan to adopt the bakerv's manager decides to contact Professor Leu ng in the Math Department to conduct a market research su rvev. The results of the surve}.r will indicate either favourable or unfavourable market conditions for premium breads. In the past, I.vhen there was low demand, Professor Leu ng's predictions were favourable 20% of the time. The professor's predictions have also been unfavourable given medium demand 55% of the time, and favourable given high demand F391; of the time. Assume prior probabilities of 0.5 and 0.3 for low and medium demand respectively. a. Calculate posterior {revised} probabilities and enter them in the table below. Round answers to 3 decimal places; do not round intermediate results . Note: The First cell of the table represents P{Low I Favourable} The last cell of the table represents P{High I Unfavourable] b. Determine the marginal probabilities of favomable and unfavourable predictions. W... = P|[UnIavaIable} =
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