Case Analysis: Grande Provence Estate - The Restaurant Grande Provence Estate - The Restaurant is on Grande Provence Heritage Wine Estate, a resort community in Franschhoek, Western Cape. The restaurant, which is owned and operated by Mrs Marlena Du Toit, has just completed its third year of operation. During that time, Mrs Du Toit has sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high-quality dining establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. The efforts of Mrs Du Toit and her staff have proven successful, and her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants on the Wine Estate, Mrs Du Toit has concluded that to plan for the growth of the restaurant in the future, she needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month for up to one year in advance. Mrs Du Toit has the following data (R1000s) on total food and beverage sales for the three years of operation. Month January February March April May June July August September October November December First Year 242 235 232 178 184 140 145 152 110 130 152 206 Second Year 263 238 247 193 193 149 157 161 122 130 167 230 Third Year 282 255 265 205 210 160 166 174 126 148 173 235 Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Grande Provence Estate - The Restaurant. Prepare a report for Mrs Du Toit that summarises your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following: 1. A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattem in the time series; (10 marks) 2. The equation for the linear trend component of this time series; (10 marks) 3. An analysis of the seasonality of the data. Indicate the seasonal indexes for each period, and comment on the high and low seasonal sales periods; (30 marks) 4. A test for the presence of any significant seasonal component; (10 marks) 5. The multiplicative seasonal model to estimate the monthly food and beverage sales at Grande Provence Estate - The Restaurant from first year to third year; (18 marks) 6. A MAPE to estimate the percent error between the actual values and the estimated values; and (10 marks) 7. Fourth year forecast food and beverage sales. (12 marks) Case Analysis: Grande Provence Estate - The Restaurant Grande Provence Estate - The Restaurant is on Grande Provence Heritage Wine Estate, a resort community in Franschhoek, Western Cape. The restaurant, which is owned and operated by Mrs Marlena Du Toit, has just completed its third year of operation. During that time, Mrs Du Toit has sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high-quality dining establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. The efforts of Mrs Du Toit and her staff have proven successful, and her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants on the Wine Estate, Mrs Du Toit has concluded that to plan for the growth of the restaurant in the future, she needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month for up to one year in advance. Mrs Du Toit has the following data (R1000s) on total food and beverage sales for the three years of operation. Month January February March April May June July August September October November December First Year 242 235 232 178 184 140 145 152 110 130 152 206 Second Year 263 238 247 193 193 149 157 161 122 130 167 230 Third Year 282 255 265 205 210 160 166 174 126 148 173 235 Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Grande Provence Estate - The Restaurant. Prepare a report for Mrs Du Toit that summarises your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following: 1. A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattem in the time series; (10 marks) 2. The equation for the linear trend component of this time series; (10 marks) 3. An analysis of the seasonality of the data. Indicate the seasonal indexes for each period, and comment on the high and low seasonal sales periods; (30 marks) 4. A test for the presence of any significant seasonal component; (10 marks) 5. The multiplicative seasonal model to estimate the monthly food and beverage sales at Grande Provence Estate - The Restaurant from first year to third year; (18 marks) 6. A MAPE to estimate the percent error between the actual values and the estimated values; and (10 marks) 7. Fourth year forecast food and beverage sales. (12 marks)
