Case Study Khalid and Ahmad left the conference room at Jeddah chamber with a lot on their mind. Khalid manager had informed him that he would be assigned to a team consisting of marketing vice president and staff members from their key customers. The goal of this team was to improve supply chain performance, as Mobile, car lubricant manufacturer, had been unable to meet demand effectively over the previous several years. This often-left Mobile's customers scrambling to meet new client demands. Khalid had little contact with Mobile's customers and wondered how he would add value to this process. He was told by his manager that the team's first task was to establish a collaborative forecast using data from both Mobile and its customers. This forecast would serve as the basis for improving the firm's performance, as managers could use this more accurate forecast for their production planning. Improved forecasts would allow Mobile to improve delivery performance, which is one of Ahmad's responsibility. Khalid eventually noticed that he must add a new member to the collaborative forecasting team. This member is the manufacturer of the plastic containers that Mobile used to fill the oil in it. That is because the collaborative forecasting team had identified that one of the mean reasons Mobile could not meet their customer demand is the lack of the packing container. APICO, which is the plastic container supplier, turns polystyrene resin into recyclable/disposable containers. Polystyrene is purchased as a commodity in the form of resin pellets. The resin is unloaded from bulk overland trailers into storage silos. Making the boxes is a two-step process. First, the resin is conveyed to an extruder, which converts it into a polystyrene sheet that is wound into rolls. The plastic comes in two formswhite and gold. The rolls are either used immediately to make containers or are put into storage. Second, the rolls are loaded onto thermoforming presses, which form the sheet into containers and trim the containers from the sheet. Over the past two years, the plastic packaging business has grown steadily. Demand for containers made from white plastic comes from grease industry, and gold plastic comes from lubricant industry. Demand for white plastic containers peaks in the fall months, whereas demand for gold plastic containers peaks in the summer. Capacity on the extruders is not enough to cover demand for sheets during the peak seasons. As a result, the plant is forced to build inventory of each type of sheet in anticipation of future demand. Table and Figure 1 display historical quarterly demand for each of the two types of containers (white and gold). The team modified APICO's sales data by accounting for lost sales to obtain true demand data. Without the customers involved in this team, APICO would never have known this information, as the company did not keep track of lost orders. Table 1: Quarterly Historical Demand for Both Plastic Colors Year Quarter 1st 2018 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Gold Plastic Demand (ton) 4735 5807 2251 3026 5326 5783 8956 7208 White Plastic Demand (ton) 4696 4660 6288 5611 6954 6706 6556 9938 2019 Page 1 of 2 Gold White 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2018 2019 Figure 1: Quarterly Demand Plot As a first step in the team's decision making, it wants to forecast quarterly demand for each of the two types of containers for the years 2018 and 2019. Based on historical trends, demand is expected to continue to grow until 2019, after which it is expected to plateau. Khalid must select the appropriate forecasting method and estimate the likely forecast error. Which method should he choose? Why? Using the method selected, forecast demand for the years 2018 to 2020. To answer the above questions, you are required to use the following report format: The report should include the following chapters: 1. Introduction, where you have to give information about what are the problems and issues in the case study, and how you are going to solve them. 2. Discussion, where you are going to give an answer to the above questions (all the calculation steps have to be mentioned in the section). 3. Conclusion, where you need to comment on the main points of this case study findings. NOTE: I do not expect any kind of collaboration with your classmate. Otherwise, all similar answers will get ZERO. Case Study Khalid and Ahmad left the conference room at Jeddah chamber with a lot on their mind. Khalid manager had informed him that he would be assigned to a team consisting of marketing vice president and staff members from their key customers. The goal of this team was to improve supply chain performance, as Mobile, car lubricant manufacturer, had been unable to meet demand effectively over the previous several years. This often-left Mobile's customers scrambling to meet new client demands. Khalid had little contact with Mobile's customers and wondered how he would add value to this process. He was told by his manager that the team's first task was to establish a collaborative forecast using data from both Mobile and its customers. This forecast would serve as the basis for improving the firm's performance, as managers could use this more accurate forecast for their production planning. Improved forecasts would allow Mobile to improve delivery performance, which is one of Ahmad's responsibility. Khalid eventually noticed that he must add a new member to the collaborative forecasting team. This member is the manufacturer of the plastic containers that Mobile used to fill the oil in it. That is because the collaborative forecasting team had identified that one of the mean reasons Mobile could not meet their customer demand is the lack of the packing container. APICO, which is the plastic container supplier, turns polystyrene resin into recyclable/disposable containers. Polystyrene is purchased as a commodity in the form of resin pellets. The resin is unloaded from bulk overland trailers into storage silos. Making the boxes is a two-step process. First, the resin is conveyed to an extruder, which converts it into a polystyrene sheet that is wound into rolls. The plastic comes in two formswhite and gold. The rolls are either used immediately to make containers or are put into storage. Second, the rolls are loaded onto thermoforming presses, which form the sheet into containers and trim the containers from the sheet. Over the past two years, the plastic packaging business has grown steadily. Demand for containers made from white plastic comes from grease industry, and gold plastic comes from lubricant industry. Demand for white plastic containers peaks in the fall months, whereas demand for gold plastic containers peaks in the summer. Capacity on the extruders is not enough to cover demand for sheets during the peak seasons. As a result, the plant is forced to build inventory of each type of sheet in anticipation of future demand. Table and Figure 1 display historical quarterly demand for each of the two types of containers (white and gold). The team modified APICO's sales data by accounting for lost sales to obtain true demand data. Without the customers involved in this team, APICO would never have known this information, as the company did not keep track of lost orders. Table 1: Quarterly Historical Demand for Both Plastic Colors Year Quarter 1st 2018 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Gold Plastic Demand (ton) 4735 5807 2251 3026 5326 5783 8956 7208 White Plastic Demand (ton) 4696 4660 6288 5611 6954 6706 6556 9938 2019 Page 1 of 2 Gold White 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2018 2019 Figure 1: Quarterly Demand Plot As a first step in the team's decision making, it wants to forecast quarterly demand for each of the two types of containers for the years 2018 and 2019. Based on historical trends, demand is expected to continue to grow until 2019, after which it is expected to plateau. Khalid must select the appropriate forecasting method and estimate the likely forecast error. Which method should he choose? Why? Using the method selected, forecast demand for the years 2018 to 2020. To answer the above questions, you are required to use the following report format: The report should include the following chapters: 1. Introduction, where you have to give information about what are the problems and issues in the case study, and how you are going to solve them. 2. Discussion, where you are going to give an answer to the above questions (all the calculation steps have to be mentioned in the section). 3. Conclusion, where you need to comment on the main points of this case study findings. NOTE: I do not expect any kind of collaboration with your classmate. Otherwise, all similar answers will get ZERO