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CASE6-2 RailVersusPipelineInvestment Thelastseveralyearshasseenatremendousgrowthinrailshipmentsinto andoutofNorthDakotaandsouthernCanada.Theseshipmentswereoil outboundandwater,sand,andotheroperatingmaterialsinbound.This growthwascausedbyOPEC'sdecisiontoholdsteadytheiroilproduction volumes,whichmadeU.S.frackingandoilwelldevelopmentinthosetwo areasveryprofitable.Thisgrowthinrailshipmentswasalsocausedbythe lackofoilandgaspipelinecapacityoutboundfromthosetwoareastoU.S. processingplants.Infact,thegrowthinvolumewassohighthatthe railroadsservingthoseareasranoutofbothcarandtrackcapacity.With volumesincreasingatasteadyrate,theobvioussolutionwouldbeforthe railroadstobuildmoretrackandacquiremoreoperatingequipment. However,investmentsinequipmentandtrackarelong-term,with equipmentandtracklastingdecadeswithpropercare.Assuch,these typesofinvestmentsrequireasteadyvolumeovertheirlife.Therailroads servingtheseareaswerefacedwithadifficultdecision.Toadequately meetdemandwouldrequirebillionsofdollarsofcapitalinvestmentbut, shortterm,couldproducebillionsofdollarsinadditionalrevenue.However, therailroadswerecautiousofOPEC'sinfluenceonthepriceofoil.OPEC hadannouncedthatitsmemberswouldbeincreasingtheproductionof crude,thusdrivingdowntheworldprice.Withthesmalloilandgas operatorsinNorthDakotaandSouthernCanadahavingamuchhigher marginaloperatingcostthantheOPECcountries,adecliningworldprice forcrudecouldforcemanyofthemtoleavetheindustry.Thenegative

CASE6-2

RailVersusPipelineInvestment

Thelastseveralyearshasseenatremendousgrowthinrailshipmentsinto

andoutofNorthDakotaandsouthernCanada.Theseshipmentswereoil

outboundandwater,sand,andotheroperatingmaterialsinbound.This

growthwascausedbyOPEC'sdecisiontoholdsteadytheiroilproduction

volumes,whichmadeU.S.frackingandoilwelldevelopmentinthosetwo

areasveryprofitable.Thisgrowthinrailshipmentswasalsocausedbythe

lackofoilandgaspipelinecapacityoutboundfromthosetwoareastoU.S.

processingplants.Infact,thegrowthinvolumewassohighthatthe

railroadsservingthoseareasranoutofbothcarandtrackcapacity.With

volumesincreasingatasteadyrate,theobvioussolutionwouldbeforthe

railroadstobuildmoretrackandacquiremoreoperatingequipment.

However,investmentsinequipmentandtrackarelong-term,with

equipmentandtracklastingdecadeswithpropercare.Assuch,these

typesofinvestmentsrequireasteadyvolumeovertheirlife.Therailroads

servingtheseareaswerefacedwithadifficultdecision.Toadequately

meetdemandwouldrequirebillionsofdollarsofcapitalinvestmentbut,

shortterm,couldproducebillionsofdollarsinadditionalrevenue.However,

therailroadswerecautiousofOPEC'sinfluenceonthepriceofoil.OPEC

hadannouncedthatitsmemberswouldbeincreasingtheproductionof

crude,thusdrivingdowntheworldprice.Withthesmalloilandgas

operatorsinNorthDakotaandSouthernCanadahavingamuchhigher

marginaloperatingcostthantheOPECcountries,adecliningworldprice

forcrudecouldforcemanyofthemtoleavetheindustry.Thenegative

impactoftheseexitscouldbesubstantialfortherailroads.

CASEQUESTIONS1.Ifyouwerepresidentofoneoftheserailroads,what

decisionwouldyoumake?Maintaincurrentcapacityandforgoadditional

revenue?Maketheinvestmentinadditionalcapacitywiththeassumption

thatvolumewillcontinuetoincrease?Explainyouranswer.

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