Combined Forecast #2 Consider the two regressions below that were used to determine the appropriateness of a combined model of Private Housing Starts. RFCST is the regression model of Private Housing Starts (PHS). WFCST is the Winters' exponential smoothing model of Private Housing Starts. Regression #1 Audit Trail -- Coefficient Table (Multiple Regression Selected) Included Standard Overall Series Description in Model Coefficient Error T-test F-test Elasticity F-test PHS Dependent -44.30 26.96 -1. 64 2.70 226.75 RFCST Yes 0. 29 0. 11 2. 71 7.35 0. 29 WFCST Yes 0. 88 0. 05 18.71 350.24 0. 88 Audit Trail - Statistics Accuracy Measures Value Forecast Statistics Value AIC 281. 49 Durbin Watson 2. 21 BIC 283. 05 Mean 271.85 Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 4. 07% Standard Deviation 51.83 Sum Squared Error (SSE) 6. 020. 44 Max 360. 40 R-Square 93. 41% Min 146.70 Adjusted R-Square 93. 00% Range 213. 70 Mean Absolute Error 10.27 Ljung-Box 0.54 Mean Error 0.00 Mean Square Error 172. 01 Root Mean Square Error 13. 12 Theil 0. 22Regression #2 Audit Trail -- Coefficient Table (Multiple Regression Selected) Included Standard Overall Series Description in Model Coefficient Error T-test F-test Elasticity F-test PHS Dependent 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 214.35 RFCST Yes 0. 13 0. 05 2.70 7.29 0.00 WFCST Yes 0. 88 0. 05 18. 18 330.49 0. 88 Audit Trail - Statistics Accuracy Measures Value Forecast Statistics Value AIC 284.33 Durbin Watson 1. 99 BIC 285. 88 Mean 271.85 Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 4.34% Standard Deviation 51. 83 Sum Squared Error (SSE) 6, 528. 68 Max 360. 40 R-Square 92. 85% Min 146.70 Adjusted R-Square 92. 41% Range 213.70 Mean Absolute Error 10.91 Ljung-Box 0.00 Mean Error -0.33 Mean Square Error 186.53 Root Mean Square Error 13. 66 Theil 0.23