Question
Company XYZ is analyzing the possible acquisition of a privately-held oil company called O&G Inc. The financial information for O&G is shown below: Revenues in
Company XYZ is analyzing the possible acquisition of a privately-held oil company called O&G Inc. The financial information for O&G is shown below:
Revenues in 2018 | $30 million |
COGS as % of revenues | 64% |
Tax rate on income | 35% |
Depreciation as % of revenues | 2.25% |
CAPEX as % of revenues | 3% |
Working capital as % of revenues | 2% |
Company XYZ estimates that it can increase O&Gs free cash flows by reducing operating costs and capital expenditures. They estimate the following savings:
2019-2021 | After 2021 | |
COGS as % of revenues | 58% | 54% |
CAPEX as % of revenues | 1% | 0.50% |
It is expected that the revenues of O&G will grow at a rate of 2.5% over the period 2019-2021 and then at a constant rate of 2% after the year 2021. O&G has no debt.
Since O&G is privately-held, its equity beta is not available. However, analysts at Company XYZ believe that ConocoPhillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX) can be used as comparable firms. Below is the the financial information for these two firms:
Beta | Debt (Billions of $) | Book Value of Equity (Billions of $) | Market Value of Equity (Billions of $) | |
ConocoPhillips | 0.98 | 14.97 | 31.93 | 79.96 |
Chevron | 0.91 | 36.11 | 153.57 | 227.65 |
Assume that the market risk premium is 6.5%, the risk free-rate is 5%, the cost of debt is 5%, and that the CAPM holds. Further, assume that you are doing the valuation at the beginning of 2019.
Company XYZ has a market value of equity of $850 million and 40 million shares outstanding.
If Company XYZ were to make a 40% stock and 60% cash offer for O&G and both firms decide to share the synergies equally, how many shares of Company XYZ would the target shareholders receive?
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