Consider monthly demand for the ABC Corporation as shown in Table. Forecast the monthly demand for year 5 using Simple exponential smoothing, Holts model, and Winters model. In each case, evaluate MSE. Which forecasting method do you prefer? Why?

Consider monthly demand for the ABC Corporation as shown in Table. Forecast the monthly demand for year 5 using Simple exponential smoothing, Holt's model, and Winter's model. In each case, evaluate MSE. Which forecasting method do you prefer? Why? Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Jan 2000 3000 5000 2000 5000 Feb 3000 4000 4000 Mar 3000 3000 5000 4000 3000 3000 2000 Apr May Jun 4000 6000 5000 5000 8000 4000 6000 5000 7000 10000 Jul Aug Sep 7000 6000 10000 12000 3000 8000 12000 7000 10000 15000 14000 16000 Oct 12000 15000 16000 Nov 14000 16000 18000 20000 12000 Dec 8000 10000 8000 L (a) Forecast Exponential Smoothing Holt's Model Winter's Model Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MSE (b) Which forecasting method do you prefer? Why