Consider the following information regarding corporate bonds: Rating AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC Average Default Rate 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 2.2% 5.5% 12.2% Recession Default Rate 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 8.0% 16.0% 48.0% Average Beta 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.17 0.26 0.31 Rearden Metal has a bond issue outstanding with ten years to maturity, a yield to maturity of 8.6%, and a B rating. The bondholders expected loss rate in the event of default is 50%. Assuming the economy is in recession, then the expected return on Rearden Metal's debt is closest to: 6.0% 4.6%. 1.6% 0.6%