Context and data: Remember Orchid Relief product produced by Eli Orchid from previous mini-projects. The product is designed to improve the night sleep, so the company is guessing that sales of the product is somewhat related to sleeping pattern of customers over the days of the week. Before mass production of the product, Eli Orchid has market tested Orchid Relief in only Orange County over the past 8 weeks. The weekly demand is recorded and provided below. The following graph also shows how daily demand changed over time. Eli Orchid is now trying to use the sales pattern over the past 8 weeks to predict sales in US for the upcoming few weeks, especially for days 57 and 60. An accurate forecast would be much helpful in arrangements for the company's production processes and design of price promotions over each week.

(There are 7 days in each cycle)

More relevant data and questions below:

When the above forecast was presented to the Chief Marketing Officer, he confirmed that seasonality is present. However, he indicated that only the last week of data can be most relied on because of a special marketing campaign that was launched on day 50; the campaign is expected to be present in the near future as well. Therefore, he made the following suggestion: Make a deseasonalized forecast only based on the last 7 days of the deseasonalized time series (from day 50); then use the seasonal indexes as you did before to incorporate the effect of seasonality on this deseasonalized forecast to arrive at a seasonal forecast.

Use the deseasonalized time series for the last 7 days for questions 7 to 12 below.

a) What is a deseasonalized forecast for day 57 using the 3-day weighted moving average with weights 60%, 30% and 10%?

b) What is a deseasonalized forecast for day 60 using the 3-day weighted moving average with weights 60%, 30% and 10%? c) Using the deseasonalized forecast of the previous question as the Chief Marketing Officer suggested, what is a (seasonal) forecast for day 60?

Daily Demand 500 350 N 300 250 10 20 50 60