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Dante Development Corporation is considering bidding on a contract for a new office building complex. The figure below shows the decision tree prepared by one
Dante Development Corporation is considering bidding on a contract for a new office building complex. The figure below shows the decision tree prepared by one of Dantes analysts. At node 1, the company must decide whether to bid on the contract. The cost of preparing the bid is $200,000. The upper branch from node 2 shows that the company has a 0.8 probability of winning the contract if it submits a bid. If the company wins the bid, it will have to pay $2,000,000 to become a partner in the project. Node 3 shows that the company will then consider doing a market research study to forecast demand for the office units prior to beginning construction. The cost of this study is $150,000. Node 4 is a chance node showing the possible outcomes of the market research study. Nodes 5, 6, and 7 are similar in that they are the decision nodes for Dante to either build the office complex or sell the rights in the project to another developer. The decision to build the complex will result in an income of $5,000,000 if demand is high and $3,000,000 if demand is moderate. If Dante chooses to sell its rights in the project to another developer, income from the sale is estimated to be $3,500,000. The probabilities shown at nodes 4, 8, and 9 are based on the projected outcomes of the market research study. Profit (S1000) High Demand 2650 0.85 Moderate Demand 650 0.15 1150 Build Complex Forecast High -3 06 Sell Market Research (4) Build Complex Forecast Moderate 014 16 Sell High Demand 2650 0.225 Moderate Demand 650 0.775 1150 Win Contract High Demand 0.6 2800 Build Complex Bid No Market Research Moderate Demand 04 800 Sell 1300 1 Lose Contact 02 -200 Do Not Bid 0 (b) What is the optimal decision strategy for Dante, and what is the expected profit for this project? Enter your answer in thousands dollars. For example, an answer of $200 thousands should be entered as 200,000. Decision Strategy Bid on the Contract Do not do market research Build the Complex Expected Profit = $ 2,000
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