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Derive the probability distribution of the 1-year HPR on a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond with a coupon of 3.5% if it is currently selling at

Derive the probability distribution of the 1-year HPR on a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond with a coupon of 3.5% if it is currently selling at par and the probability distribution of its yield to maturity a year from now is as shown in the table below. (Assume the entire 3.5% coupon is paid at the end of the year rather than every 6 months. Assume a par value of $100.)

Economy Probability YTM Price Capital Gain Coupon Interest HPR
Boom 0.30 9.0 % %
Normal Growth 0.50 7.0 % %
Recession 0.20 5.0 % %

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