Determine whether any of the other four forecasting models would have had better results than Model #1

5 A 6 Data Section 7 January 8 February 9 March 10 April 11 May 12 June 13 July 14 August 15 September 16 October 17 November 18 December 19 20 21 Apply Seasonality Adjustment 22 Forecast Growth Rate (Target): 23 Forecast Weights: 24 YTD Aggregate Growth Rate: 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 B 2017 Total 2018 Total Sold (Cases) Sold (Cases) 52598 58908 58800 69056 64884 55465 59143 61171 64173 68265 72885 69865 NO 3.00% 20% -8.07% 57487 59513 62834 75115 67409 55863 61869 62850 63224 67351 75195 72488 30% D 2019 Total Sold (Cases) 57342 58236 56843 71343 65875 59351 60050 63259 62518 69002 72102 72952 50% E 2020 Total Sold (Cases) 58012 59456 57007 59582 58209 52850 53021 55895 56022 2020 YTD Accuracy F Forecast Accuracy 1st Quarter 2020 Accuracy MAD MSE MAPE MAD MSE MAPE 2nd Quarter MAD 2020 MSE Accuracy MAPE G 2019 2020 Actual Growth 1.17% 2.09% 0.29% -16.49% -11.64% -10.95% -11.71% -11.64% -10.39% - H MODEL #1 MODEL #2 2020 Forecast 3% Growth Over 2019 Only 59062 59983 58548 73483 67851 2020 Forecast 3- month Moving Average 71352 67689 63473 58158 58682 61132 58266 61852 56880 65157 54693 64394 53922 71072 54979 74265 75141 #N/A #N/A 1039 1251637 1.80% P 10608 2438 118265830 10528187 18.52% 4.48% 71907 65312 61722 57943 58784 58381 55804 54007 54424 MODEL #1 MODEL #2 MODEL #3 6823 4724 4276 65823776 37764255 33007459 12.13% 8.31% 7.53% MODEL #3 MODEL #4 2020 2020 Forecast 3- Month Weighted Forecast Moving Average Smoothing with Trend MODEL #5 2020 Forecast Exp. Exp. Smoothing 55384 #N/A #N/A T 64148 66534 68459 65325 63564 61597 60993 60158 57965 56482 #N/A #N/A 9346 8155 8222 95849015 83198329 72965628 16.06% 14.02% 14.19% X 2582 6615 11202969 46056028 4.73% 11.80% 65129 68077 70156 65089 62719 60303 59974 59212 56521 55022 MODEL #4 MODEL #5 6521 49174019 11.57% 6347 51519954 11.21% #N/A #N/A 9629 99289844 16.61% 5823 35404786 10.36% AB AC Season Adjusment Factors 0.89 0.91 0.89 1.11 1.03 0.93 0.94 0.99 0.98 1.08 1.10 1.14 AD