Question
Do states with high crime rates have high Incarceration rates? I drew a systematic random sample of 17 states. The table below shows Crime Rate
Do states with high crime rates have high Incarceration rates? I drew a systematic random sample of 17 states. The table below shows Crime Rate data, as reported by the FBI and Incarceration Rate data as reported by the Bureau of Justice Statistics for the most recent years for which data were available. for those states.I have arranged the data performed the calculations.
Total crime
Incarceration Rate
Rate (X)
per 100,000 Adults (Y)
X- Mean X
(X-Mean X)2
(Y-Mean Y)
(Y-MeanY)2
X-Mean X) * (Y-Mean Y)
2016
2015
State
Alabama
4157.2
790
1386.48
1922317.00
238.82
57036.68
331123.2042
Arkansas
3819.5
774
1048.78
1099932.09
222.82
49650.33
233692.0747
Connecticut
2035.1
396
-735.62
541141.98
-155.18
24079.74
114151.463
Florida
3117.1
621
346.38
119976.66
69.82
4875.33
24185.22768
Idaho
1974.5
590
-796.22
633971.91
38.82
1507.27
-30912.20761
Iowa
2376.6
541
-394.12
155333.36
-10.18
103.56
4010.786505
Louisiana
3863.8
1019
1093.08
1194816.17
467.82
218858.85
511366.8924
Massachusetts
1938
225
-832.72
693428.48
-326.18
106391.09
271614.8218
Mississippi
3048.6
803
277.88
77215.33
251.82
63415.09
69975.83356
Nebraska
2554.3
371
-216.42
46839.14
-180.18
32463.56
38994.42768
New Jersey
1789.6
293
-981.12
962603.38
-258.18
66655.09
253303.01
NorthCarolina
3109.7
455
338.98
114905.05
-96.18
9249.91
-32601.56055
Oklahoma
3432.7
948
661.98
438212.85
396.82
157468.91
262687.8394
Rhode Island
2137.6
254
-633.12
400845.40
-297.18
88313.85
188149.4159
Tennessee
3487
549
716.28
513051.98
-2.18
4.74
-1558.954671
Vermont
1855.7
255
-915.02
837268.06
-296.18
87720.50
271008.4394
West Virginia
2405.3
486
-365.42
133534.36
-65.18
4247.97
23817.01592
Total
47102.3
9370
0.00
9885393.19
0.00
972042.47
2533007.73
Mean
2770.72
551.18
581493.72
57178.97
SD
786.03
246.48
505056.28
61173.24
Covariance
158312.9831
Calculate b (formula 12.2, p. 330)
Calculate a (formula 12.3, p. 330)
Find your home state in this Table
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/topic-pages/tables/table-3
Calculate the Total Crime Rate for that state by adding together Violent Crime Rate per 100,000 inhabitants + Property Crime Rate per 100,000 inhabitants.You will find this information in the last line of data for each state (State Total row).If you are not from the US, pick the state you would most like to visit.
Calculate the predicted incarceration rate for that state (formula 12.1; example on page 332.)
Without knowledge of crime rate, our best estimate for each state would be the overall average.Based on our sample, the Average Incarceration rate is 551.18 per 100,000 inhabitants.By how much, if at all, does using the value predicted by the prediction equation improve your estimation?
Calculate r2 as illustrated on page 338, or using formula 12.6 on page 341.
Calculater as illustrated on page 345.
Interpret each of these two statistics.
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