Draw an event tree for degrees of escape success for levels 10 through 12. Be sure to identify all challenges along the way. Note here that there are four mutually exclusive outcomes of concern as follows: O0: Escapee captured O1: Escapee Defeats Level 10; not Level 11 or 12 O2: Escapee Defeats Levels 10 and 11; not Level 12 O3: Escapee Defeats Levels 10, 11, and 12

a/What is the initiating event (E) that begins the event tree? What probability would you assign to the initiating event to the novice player that has only been playing for a few minutes?

b/What probability would you assign to the experienced player that has been playing for an hour or more? Why is there a difference?

c/ What is an intrusion path? Draw the cross-section of the intrusion path(s) for Level 3 of the security game below d/ What is the difference between an event tree and a fault tree? When would you use one or the other? When might you use both?

d/Assume an experienced game player that has overcome the first nine levels, but has not ever seen levels 10 through 12. Assign probabilities of success for each branch in your event tree for the novice player and calculate the conditional probability of each outcome given occurrence of the initiating event. Use your experience as your guide. Calculate the probability of each outcome assuming the experienced player. This means you are to assume the probability of initiating event you gave in part B for the experienced player.

e/Assume the loss associated with O1 is zero, the loss associated with O2 is 10, the loss associated with O3 is 20, and the loss associated with O3 is 40. What is the expected loss? (hint: multiply the loss value times the probability of experiencing that loss).