E R Visits A regional hospital is interested in learning more about the pattern of visits to the ER. They have special interest on the first four days. They want to have all the required resources getting ready for the next year. They decided to use the multiplicative seasonality model to do a forecast of the visits for the next year. The data ofthese visit is shown below. Attendace to ER per day in the last five years Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year I Year 5 SaturdayI 1,235 1,237 1,099 1,088 1,153 Sunday 2,182 2,349 2,651 2,520 2,508 mun Monday 2,703 2,599 2,??9 2,335 3,004 Tuesday 2 ,428 2 ,485 2 , 5 3 1 2,339 2 , 249 2. son \"Ila TomL 3,543 3,520 9,060 8,332 9,024 "l, 500 2.000 Seasonal in dEXES' Year 1 Year 2 'Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 1,500 Saturday 0.58 A 0.49 0.49 0.52 1 m\" Sl-ll'll:'|',gI 1-02 1-08 B 1.14 1-15 Sniul day Sunday Von-day Tul'udny Monday 1-26 1.20 1'23 C 133 *'iear 1 I'r'eal 2 Year 5 Year '1 +Year 'J Tuesday 1.14 1.15 1.12 1.06 D *note for the following questions, you can use Excel or you can solve manually. it is important that, either way, you understand the manual calculation and the meaning of the numbers and results. 1. Calculate a missing value (A, B, C, or D) in the table, and describe what it means, in your own words (e.g., it is the seasonal factor for..., and the result of means that...). Forecasting Understanding Questions 2. We are using a Moving Average Forecast with n=4 and know that F10 = 50, D10 = 52, and F11 = 51. Find D6. 3. Consider a case where demand increases by 10 units each period like shown in the picture below: If we use a Simple Moving Average (n=2) model to forecast, what will the MAD be? What will the CFE be