Each question will indicate which database you need to use.

Use the link below to access "Excel Databases.xls":

https://drive.google.com/file/d/19TI3HId0greXS0nkmDuoITv1IMPF_TUK/view

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QUESTION 1

Use the Agricultural Time series database on "Excel Databases.xls".Use the variable Green Beans to forecast the number of green beans for month 169 using a five-month moving average.What is the forecast for month 169?Write the answer as a number and round the answer to 1 decimal place.

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QUESTION 2

Use the Agricultural Time series database on "Excel Databases.xls".Use the variable Green Beans to forecast the number of green beans for month 169 using an exponential smoothing constant,= 0.6.What is the forecast for month 169?Write the answer as a number and round the answer to 1 decimal place.

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QUESTION 3

Use the Agricultural Time series database on "Excel Databases.xls".Use the variable Green Beans to forecast the number of green beans using a 5-month moving average and a model with an exponential smoothing constant,= 0.6.Which model produces a more accurate forecast - the five-month moving average (Forecast A) or the exponential smoothing constant,= 0.6 (Forecast B)?Use the MSE to support your answer. Select 1 answer below.

A.Forecast A because the MSE is lower.

B.Forecast A because the MSEis higher.

C.Forecast B because the MSE is lower.

D.Forecast B because the MSE is higher.

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QUESTION 4

Use the International Labor database Time series database on "Excel Databases.xls" showing the unemployment rate (%) over the past 40 years in various countries.Specifically, for the US, create two different forecasts using exponential smoothing.Let forecast A use an exponential smoothing constant,= 0.2, and forecast B use an exponential smoothing constant,= 0.8.What is the MAD for Forecast B?Write the answer as a number and round the answer to 2 decimal places.

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QUESTION 5

Use the International Labor database Time series database on "Excel Databases.xls" showing the unemployment rate (%) over the past 40 years in various countries.Specifically for the US, create two different forecasts using exponential smoothing.Let forecast A use an exponential smoothing constant,= 0.2, and forecast B use an exponential smoothing constant,= 0.8.Which model produces more accurate forecasts, why?Use the MAD to support your answer. Select 1 answer below.

A.Forecast A because the MAD is lower.

B.Forecast B because the MAD is lower.

C.Forecast A because the MAD is higher.

D.Forecast B because the MAD is higher.

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QUESTION 6

Use the 12-Year Gasoline Time series database on "Excel Databases.xls".Look at the time-series plot from January 1997 to May 2008 to predict the US Gasoline Price (cents).Then develop a linear model and a quadratic model to predict US Gasoline Price (cents) over this time period.Which model appears to be better at predicting US Gasoline Price and why? Select 1 answer below.

A.The quadratic model because the time series plot showed an upward curvilinear trend, and the r-squared value is higher.

B.The quadratic model because the time series plot showed an upward curvilinear trend, and the estimates of the regression coefficients are larger.

C.The linear model because the time series plot showed an upward linear trend, and the r-squared value is higher.

D.The linear model because the time series plot showed an upward linear trend, and the estimate of the slope is larger.

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QUESTION 7

Use the 12-Year Gasoline Time series database on "Excel Databases.xls".Based on the chosen model produced in the previous question, predict the US Gasoline Price (cents) for June, 2008.Write the answer as a number and round the answer to 1 decimal places., do not include units or $ sign in your answer.

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QUESTION 8

Use the Agricultural Time series database on "Excel Databases.xls".Create the time series plot to predict the amount of Broccoli over the first three years of the study (Months 1 - 36 only).Construct the time-series plot for this data.Which month has the highest amount of broccoli produced over these three years?Assume Month 1 = January. Select 1 answer below.

A.January

B.June

C.July

D.August

E.September

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QUESTION 9

Use the Agricultural Time series database on "Excel Databases.xls".Use the variable Broccoli over the first three years of the study (Months 1 - 36 only).Assume Month 1 = January.Develop an estimated regression equation that can be used to account for any seasonal and linear trend effects.Use dummy variables for the monthly seasonal effects in the data.Let Jan = 1 if January, 0 otherwise.Feb = 1 if February, 0 otherwise.Etc.This means you will have 11 dummy variables, when all dummy variables are 0, the observation corresponds to December.Compute the forecast for January (month 37) based on the linear trend and seasonal effects.Write the answer as a number and round the answer to 1 decimal place.

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QUESTION 10

Use the Agricultural Time series database on "Excel Databases.xls".Use the variable Broccoli over the first three years of the study (Months 1 - 36 only).Assume Month 1 = January.Develop an estimated regression equation that can be used to account for any seasonal and linear trend effects.Use dummy variables for the monthly seasonal effects in the data.Let Jan = 1 if January, 0 otherwise.Feb = 1 if February, 0 otherwise.Etc.This means you will have 11 dummy variables, when all dummy variables are 0, the observation corresponds to December.Look at the actual value for January of the next year (month 37).What is the difference between the observed amount of broccoli and the forecasted amount you found in the previous question?Write the answer as a number and round the answer to a whole number.

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