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Estimated Returns on Alternative Investments State of the Economy Probability T-Bills Alta Industries Repo Men American Foam Market Portfolio 2-Stock Portfolio Recession 0.1 8.0% 22.0%

  • Estimated Returns on Alternative Investments State of the Economy Probability T-Bills Alta Industries Repo Men American Foam Market Portfolio 2-Stock Portfolio Recession 0.1 8.0% −22.0% 28.0% 10.0%a −13.0% 3.0% Below average 0.2 8.0 −2.0 14.7 −10.0 1.0 Average 0.4 8.0 20.0 0.0 7.0 15.0 10.0 Above average 0.2 8.0 35.0 −10.0 45.0 29.0 Boom 0.1 8.0 50.0 −20.0 30.0 43.0 15.0 r ^ 8.0% 1.7% 13.8% 15.0% σ 0.0% 13.4% 18.8% 15.3% CV 7.9 1.4 1.0 b −0.86 0.68

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