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Exit polling. Recall the exit polling example from class: Define / to be the probability that a voter will vote for Biden in the 2020
Exit polling. Recall the exit polling example from class: Define / to be the probability that a voter will vote for Biden in the 2020 US presidential election. Suppose that we poll n voters each at p different polling places. Let Zij = 10 1 if the i-th voter at location j voted for Biden 0 otherwise Let vj = " Et-1 Zij, the sample mean at polling location j. The probability of obtaining k votes for Biden at a given location is given by the binomial distribution: P[kin, M] = ( ) Uk ( 1 - 16) 2-K (a Assume the sample size n = 10 at each polling location. If all the voters have u = 0.05 compute the probability that at least one polling location will have vj = 0 for the case of p = 1, p = 1000, and p = 1, 000, 000. Repeat for Me = 0.8. (b) For the case n = 6 and p = 2 with u = 0.5 for both locations, plot the probability P[max |v; - M| > E] for e E [0, 1] (the max is over polling locations). On the same plot show the bound that would be obtained using the Hoeffding Inequality. Remember that for a single location, the Hoeffding bound is P[lv - M/ > E]
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