For the Bakery Shop, using the first two weeks data as given on slides of forecasting lecture,

Apply double exponential smoothing forecasting method considering seasonality

$($deseasoning$/$reseasoning$).)$

Apply Winter's forecasting method $(=0\mathrm{.}1,=0\mathrm{.}1,=0\mathrm{.}1)$

Describe the implementation details of both methods, evaluate the methods using the remaining

demand data for $24$ days. Submit your HW through LMS$.$

Note:

$(1)$ In applying DES, you may obtain initial slope and intercept as you get in Winter's method. Use the

first two weeks data for this purpose. Consider deseasoning and reseasoning as we have applied

with MA in lecture.

$(2)$ In applying Winter's, use its usual procedure as explained in the lecture.

$(3)$ Evaluate your $24$ estimation using MAD and MSE for both methods.