Forecast Descriptions Montly demand at Best Buy for cameras are Monthlt Weekly Estimate demand for the next two weeks using a three month moving average. 5 points 10 points 1 Estimate demand for the next two weeks using simple exponential smoothing with a 0.3. For the simple exponential model, use the level at Period 0 to be LO 1595 (the average demand over the 12 months period). 2 Estimate demand for the next two weeks using Holt's model with a 0.05 and B-0.1. For Holt's model, use level at Period 0 to be L0-948 and the trend in Period 0 to be T0 109 10 points 3 10 points Calculate MSE and MAD in each case? Which of the three methods do you prefer? why? 4 Alpha Alpha Beta 0.3 Exponential Smoothing 0.05 0.1 Moving Average Holt's Exponential Smooth ing Holt'ts ForecastL(level) T (Trend Forecast ES (0.3) Demand L (level (3) Month MSE MAD MSE MAD (Units) Holt's 0 1595 948 109 1 900 2 1013 3 1127 4 1231 5 1345 6 1445 7 1678 8 1850 1921 9 10 2076 11 2267 12 2278 13 MSE MAD MAD MSE Forecast Descriptions Montly demand at Best Buy for cameras are Monthlt Weekly Estimate demand for the next two weeks using a three month moving average. 5 points 10 points 1 Estimate demand for the next two weeks using simple exponential smoothing with a 0.3. For the simple exponential model, use the level at Period 0 to be LO 1595 (the average demand over the 12 months period). 2 Estimate demand for the next two weeks using Holt's model with a 0.05 and B-0.1. For Holt's model, use level at Period 0 to be L0-948 and the trend in Period 0 to be T0 109 10 points 3 10 points Calculate MSE and MAD in each case? Which of the three methods do you prefer? why? 4 Alpha Alpha Beta 0.3 Exponential Smoothing 0.05 0.1 Moving Average Holt's Exponential Smooth ing Holt'ts ForecastL(level) T (Trend Forecast ES (0.3) Demand L (level (3) Month MSE MAD MSE MAD (Units) Holt's 0 1595 948 109 1 900 2 1013 3 1127 4 1231 5 1345 6 1445 7 1678 8 1850 1921 9 10 2076 11 2267 12 2278 13 MSE MAD MAD MSE