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Germany and Far Eastern countries. They achieved great success. After launching it in Germany, the Smart Fit Engineering Company (SFEC) has decided to market their
Germany and Far Eastern countries. They achieved great success. After launching it in Germany, the Smart Fit Engineering Company (SFEC) has decided to market their fat-burning exercise machine FB-Quick65 in Canada. However, sales of these machines are highly uncertain. For simplicity, potential sales levels are categorized as high or low. SPEC has to decide initially about what price it should charge for the FB-Quick65, and three prices are under consideration: low, moderate, and high. When the sales level is high, the gross profit estimation with a low price is $14.50 million, with a moderate price is $ 15.65 million and $16.45 million with a high price. When the sales level is low, the gross profit estimation with a low price is $6.15 million, with a moderate price is $ 9.20 million and $9.85 million with a high price. If a low-price option is decided, it is thought that a competitor will not enter the market due to a low- profit margin, and the chances of high sales will be 58%. If a moderate-price option is decided, it is thought that there is only a 75% probability that a competitor will enter the market. If there is no competitor, high sales are believed to be 90%. However, if there is competition, SPEC will have to decide whether to respond by advertising on television or lowering the price. Advertising on television would lower gross profits by $3.95 million and give an estimated 70% probability of high sales. Lowering the price would reduce the gross profits by $4.15 million but would provide a 60% probability of high sales (Only one of these two responses to the entry of a competitor in the market will be used.) If a high-price option is decided, then the probability of a competitor entering the market is estimated to be 85%. In the absence of competition, it is thought that there would be an 80% probability of high sales. If there is competition, then advertising on television, lowering the price or advertising on social media would be carried out. Advertising on television would lower gross profits by $3.95 million and give an estimated 60% probability of high sales. Lowering the price would reduce the gross profits by $4.15 million but would provide a 65% probability of high sales. At the same time, advertising on social media would cost $2.55 million but would give an estimated 55% probability of high sales. (Only one of these three responses to the entry of a competitor into the market will be used.) The SPEC's objective is to maximize expected net profit. a) Draw a Decision Tree representing the above problem. b) Solve the tree, then identify the optimal decision strategy that the company should adopt. What will be their expected profit? (Show your work; otherwise, you will not get marks even if the answer is correct) c) Does the given problem pass the clarity test? Please state your answer as yes or no, and then justify your response
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