Hello! can you please help me solve this question?

2. You want to forecast the index of industrial production (IPt). Hence, you define yt = 1200 . In IP: ), and estimate an AR(4) model on 492 monthly observations. You obtain the following IPt-1 parameter estimates and t-statistics (given in parentheses): yt = 1.377 + 0.318 yt_1 + 0.123 yt-2 + 0.068 yt-3 + 0.001 yt-4. (22.210) (4.077) (2.236) (1.021) (0.018) Moreover, you have gathered the following values of IP from July 2018 to December 2018: Date Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 IP 147.595 148.650 148.973 148.660 148.206 147.300 Forecast the value of yt in January 2019. (15 points)