Hi,

I am required to calculate probabilities of failing KPI's/event occurring 'x' amount of times per year. A couple of examples.

Task 1: "I will fail to produce my monthly report"

My assumption: "I think I will fail this 2 times per year".

Task 2: "I will forget to return client calls"

My assumption: "I think I will fail this 4 times per year".

Task 3: "I break the wifi router". (lets assume it will be offline for 3 hours - do I even need this level of data)

My assumption: "Probably fail this 2 times per year".

Where I am getting confused is around the 'time periods' for example in task 3.

I will break the wifi router 2x per year, is the probability calculated as:

a) 2/365? (2 days out of 365 days)

b) 6/8760? (6hrs out of 8760 hours per year)

c) 2/12 (2 separate months per year)

Hope this makes sense. For example and a practical purpose: I will have to have a managers meeting every 3 months to determine if I have "broken any KPI's" so should everything be evaluated in quarters/3 months? or perhaps even granular in months?

Thank you in advance.